Are self-driving cars possible

Self-Driving Cars: Fiction or Reality?

 

2020 was the year when the stuff of science-fiction became reality. Multiple automobile manufacturers announced the release of self-driving cars this year. Tesla had ambitiously declared that it would have its model ready by 2018. Yet, to date, we don’t have a commercially available autonomous vehicle on the roads. Would you like to hear the good news first or the bad news? How about both?

The CEO of Volkswagen recently said that fully self-driving cars might “never happen”. He’s not alone in this scepticism. The vision of fully self-driving cars is a lot more difficult to realize than expected. Overly ambitious declarations at the beginning of the 2010 decade were made with the advent of AI. However, the world overlooked plenty of concerns that only began to be noticed once the trials and practical evaluations started.

The good news, however, is one should never say never. Fully self-driving cars may not be available yet for common use but, a lot of progress has been made in that direction. They’re a lot closer than they were perhaps five years ago, but no one can predict with certainty when will they hit the roads. Let’s take a closer look at the self-driving car technology and its progress so far.

What are Self-Driving Cars? 

Have you ever been so sleepy on the way back home from work that you wished the car drove itself while you napped? Have you ever regretted missing an important call because you were driving and couldn’t pull over? Are you someone who despises driving and wishes that you could just sit back and reach your destination without lifting a finger? A self-driving car is what makes these fantasies come true.

A self-driving car is an autonomous vehicle capable of covering distances without human interference. The automated technology operates through sensors and artificial intelligence, with or without a passenger controlling it from the inside. Decades of attempts at prototypes for self-driving cars suggest that it will be fitted with cameras to track its vicinity. An enormous amount of training data will be needed to train these cars.

According to the Society of Automotive Engineers, there are 6 levels of driving automation. These levels have been adopted by the U.S. Department of Transportation, and range from Level 0 (fully manual) to Level 6 (fully autonomous). The driverless self-driving vehicles are at level 4 and 5. Semi-autonomous vehicles that co-share the driving efforts with humans are at Levels 2 and 3. They contain automated add-ons called Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS). 

While experts are unsure about a self-driving car at Level 5 ever being a possibility, Level 4 cars are under selective public roadway trials.

Evolution of Self-Driving Car Technology

In 2009, Google launched the project of self-driving cars. In 2016, Waymo became a subsidiary of Alphabet, and the autonomous driving company became Google’s self-driving project. Since then, Waymo has become the industry leader in self-driving cars. It uses high-resolution cameras and lidar (light detection and ranging) technology to estimate distances.

Mercedes Benz created waves by introducing Drive Pilot, an autonomous driving vehicle. It allows the driver to supervise the overall operation of the car and relay direct control of steering and speed in certain circumstances. 

Tesla announced its own ambition to create driverless vehicles but failed to do so. However, it has created models that can automatically apply brakes when they anticipate a collision or sense that the car has deviated from its lane. Tesla Model S has an autopilot feature that handles highway driving.

Efforts to realize fully self-driving vehicles are being made continuously. More and more companies are investing in the technology required to do this, despite the obstacles. Uber hired robotics and artificial intelligence experts to bring this venture to fruition. Ford, General Motors, Nissan and many other automobile giants are spending billions on this, while numerous startups are rushing to offer assistance with the development of various components required.

What are the Challenges?

A large part of the problem lies in the requirement for the expansive amount of training data. Billions of hours of driving footage is needed to teach the computer good driving behaviour. Collecting such a large amount of data is expensive. Even then, rare case scenarios are hard to predict, making human involvement indispensable. Some of the lesser-known challenges are:

Lidar and radar systems: They are expensive and still require the optimum balance between resolution and range. It’s not yet known whether multiple autonomous vehicles on the road would function with interfering lidar signals and frequencies. 

Weather conditions: Heavy precipitation and thick layers of snow can lead to unclear judgements about the road conditions. They can hide lane dividers and markings, making it difficult for the sensors to detect them.

Accident liability: A pedestrian died on March 18, 2018, after being hit by a self-driving car. Tesla’s Autopilot system led to another lethal accident in 2018. Investigations are still incomplete on three other deadly Tesla crashes. These incidents indicate that the perfect driverless car technology is still far from being achieved. There’s still debate around who should be liable for accidents due to driverless cars. Should it be the manufacturer, the passenger, or the developer? No one knows.

Emotional intelligence: Artificial intelligence tries to mimic the executive cognitive functions of humans but it cannot replace the human element. Human drivers rely on subtle, non-verbal cues to make judgement calls and behaviours on the road. It’s still debatable whether autonomous cars will be able to act within a split-second if a child darts on to the road or an animal is stuck in the middle of the road.

The Future of Self-Driving Cars

These cars could reduce traffic congestion by 30%, transportation costs by 40%, and CO2 emissions worldwide by 80%. This technological revolution will make these cars indispensable once they arrive. Driverless technology is expected to add $7 trillion to the global economy.

However, it could create problems for various enterprises, businesses, and services. The auto-industry, its gas stations, suppliers, dealers, insurers, parking companies, government revenue via tolls and licensing fees, etc. can become obsolete.

Since 2017, Waymo has been doing test runs for driverless cars in Arizona. Tesla has been periodically updating its autopilot technology. Though the technology has been progressing rapidly, when self-driving cars will actually hit the roads is anyone’s guess.

Picture of the Chibitech logo girl

 

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